#3 - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Phillip Tetlock & Dan Gardner)
We require RiskLens consultants to read Superforecasting. Risk analysis is always about forecasting future loss (frequency and magnitude). As practitioners, it is critical to learn the problems with forecasting. Knowing is half the battle. Superforecasting takes the audience through the battlefield by offering a process for improvement.
If there is one book you could read out of order, it is Superforecasting. Yet, it shows up at #3 because it will hammer home forecasting as a skill once the other books open your eyes.
#4 - Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Phillip Tetlock)
Yes, another book by Tetlock appears in our list. Published first, tackled second. His work in understanding forecasting is tremendously valuable. Superforecasting builds on the research that resulted in publishing Expert Political Judgment.
Tetlock seeks to improve the reader's ability to identify and understand errors of judgment. If we improve this skill, we will improve our ability to evaluate expert inputs in risk management.