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Tony Martin-Vegue


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Aggregating Expert Opinion: Simple Averaging Method in Excel

[fa icon="calendar'] Aug 15, 2019 10:53:37 AM / by Tony Martin-Vegue posted in FAIR

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"Expert judgment has always played a large role in science and engineering. Increasingly, expert judgment is recognized as just another type of scientific data …" -Goossens et al., “Application and Evaluation of an Expert Judgment Elicitation Procedure for Correlations

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Aggregating Expert Opinion in Risk Analysis: An Overview of Methods

[fa icon="calendar'] Jul 23, 2019 8:02:31 AM / by Tony Martin-Vegue posted in FAIR, Risk Management

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Expert elicitation is simple to define, but difficult to effectively use given its complexities. Most of us already use some form of expert elicitation while performing a risk analysis whenever we ask someone their opinion on a particular data point. The importance of using a structured methodology for collecting and aggregating expert opinion is understated in risk analysis
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Black Swans in Risk: Myth, Reality and Bad Metaphors

[fa icon="calendar'] Mar 19, 2018 12:00:00 PM / by Tony Martin-Vegue posted in FAIR, Risk Management

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The term “Black Swan event” has been part of the risk management lexicon since its coinage in 2007 by Nassim Taleb in his eponymous book titled The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

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