FAIR Institute Blog

FAIR Risk Terminology: ‘Vulnerability’ Is ‘Susceptibility’, the Open Group Says

[fa icon="calendar"] May 6, 2021 10:04:04 AM / by Jeff B. Copeland

Vulnerability in FAIR Risk AnalysisThe Open Group Security Forum, the experts who maintain Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR™) as the international standard for cyber risk quantification, recently updated the Open FAIR Body of Knowledge to clarify some risk terminology, including this statement:   

“’Susceptibility’ is an accepted synonym for Vulnerability.” 


Read about the update from the Open Group


That makes official a working definition that many FAIR practitioners use to explain Vulnerability, an important factor in determining Loss Event Frequency in factor analysis - but one which is commonly used in a different sense in the cybersecurity world. 

For the conventional definition, see this from the CVE Program, the vulnerabilities registry: 

“Vulnerability: A flaw in a software, firmware, hardware, or service component resulting from a weakness that can be exploited, causing a negative impact to the confidentiality, integrity, or availability of an impacted component or components.” 

So, for instance, the SolarWinds Orion software hack was carried out through a “vulnerability that could allow for authentication bypass,” said the Center for Internet Security

As one of the factors in FAIR that contributes to a quantitative analysis result, Vulnerability needs a definition that can be quantified. It’s a two-parter, two ways of saying the same thing, really. Take a look at the FAIR Standard on One Page infographic to see the relationship among the factors on the left or Loss Event Frequency side. 


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Vulnerability is the  

  • Probability that a Threat Event becomes a Loss Event
  • Probability that Threat Capability is greater than Resistance Strength

The probability is usually expressed as a percentage, between 0 and 100%.

The Open Group unpacks the above terms:

  • Threat Capability is the probable level of force (as embodied by the time, resources, and technological capability) that a Threat Agent is capable of applying against an Asset.
  • Resistance Strength is the strength of a Control as compared to the Threat Capability.

Vulnerability is typically estimated as a percentage for the fraction of Threat Events that become Loss Events. based on the organization’s history (gathered from SMEs) and industry resources (such as MITRE ATT&CK).

As Steve Poppe writes in his blog post for the FAIR Institute, What Is Vulnerability?, estimating Loss Event Frequency for FAIR comes down to 

Loss Event Frequency = Threat Event Frequency x Vulnerability 

He gives this simple example:

Suppose the loss event is the exposure of confidential information to unauthorized users, and we need to evaluate loss event frequency for two threat types, loss of a laptop and malicious use of privileged access by an insider.

Scenario

Loss of Laptop

Malicious Insider

Threat Event Frequency (annual)

10

0.1

Vulnerability (probability Threat Event will result in a Loss Event)

1%

25%

Loss Event Frequency (annual)

1 x per year

.025 times per year (once every 40 years)

Now, imagine Susceptibility in place of Vulnerability above, and you’ll see why it’s a useful synonym both for understanding and communicating FAIR methodology and avoiding confusion with the “vulnerabilities” that the security world is forever hunting down.

Related:

'Vulnerability' in Risk Analysis, Explained in 2 Minutes [Video]

Threat Capability and Resistance Strength: A Weight on a Rope

Meltdown, Spectre, Heartbleed - Risk Modeling the Vulnerability du Jour, Part 1: Framing

Topics: Key Terms

Jeff B. Copeland

Written by Jeff B. Copeland

Jeff is the Content Marketing Manager for RiskLens.

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